Published and Forthcoming Papers


"The Effect of Immigration Restrictions on Local Labor Markets: Lessons from the 1920s Border Closure", [CEPR dp] [NBER wp] (joint with Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Elior Cohen, and Casper Worm Hansen). American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, forthcoming. Media: [Bloomberg] [Economist] [Forbes], Video: [Econimate] (permanent working papers: Ager and Hansen (2016, 2017): Media: [The Conversation] [Bloomberg])

"Killer Incentives: Rivalry, Performance and Risk-Taking among German Fighter Pilots, 1939-45", (joint with Leonardo Bursztyn, Lukas Leucht, and Joachim Voth). Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming. Media: [Voxeu] [NBER Digest] [The Times]

"School Closures During the 1918 Flu Pandemic", [CEPR dp] [NBER wp] (joint with Katherine Eriksson, Ezra Karger, Peter Nencka, and Melissa Thomasson). Review of Economics and Statistics, accepted. 

"The Intergenerational Effects of a Large Wealth Shock: White Southerners After the Civil War​", [Online Appendix] [CEPR dp] [NBER wp] (joint with Leah Boustan and Katherine Eriksson). American Economic Review, 2021, vol. 111 (11), pp. 3767-94Media: [Bloomberg] [Citylab] [Economist] [ProMarket] [Voxeu] [Wall Street Journal] [Washington Post] 

"Structural Change and the Fertility Transition", [CEPR dp] [Online Appendix] (joint with Benedikt Herz and Markus Brueckner). Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 102 (4), pp. 806-822. Media: [Voxeu] [The Barcelona GSE Voice]

"How the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Shaped Economic Activity in the American West", [CEPR dp] [NBER wp] [Online Appendix] (joint with Katherine Eriksson, Casper Worm Hansen, and Lars Lønstrup). Explorations in Economic History, 2020, vol. 77 (July), pp. 101342. Media: [Los Angeles Times] [Voxeu]

"Agricultural Risk and the Spread of Religious Communities", [Online Appendix] (joint with Antonio Ciccone). Journal of the European Economic Association, 2018, 16 (4), pp.1021-68. Media: [Nada es gratis] [EHES Blog]


"Fertility and early-life mortality: Evidence from smallpox vaccination in Sweden", [Online Appendix] [Poster] (joint with Casper Worm Hansen and Peter Sandholt Jensen). Journal of the European Economic Association, 2018, 16 (2), pp. 487-521. Media: [EHES Blog]


"Immigrants' Genes: Genetic Diversity and Economic Development in the US", [Online Appendix] (joint with Markus Brueckner). Economic Inquiry, 2018, vol. 56 (April), pp. 1149-64


"The Boll Weevil Plague and its Effect on the Southern Agricultural Sector, 1889-1929", (joint with Markus Brueckner and Benedikt Herz). Explorations in Economic History, 2017, vol. 65 (July), pp. 94-105 


"Cultural Diversity and Economic Growth: Evidence from the US During the Age of Mass Migration", [Online Appendix(joint with Markus Brueckner). European Economic Review, 2013, vol. 64 (November), pp. 76-97


Working Papers


"How the Other Half Died: Immigration and Mortality in US Cities", [CEPR dp] [NBER wp] (joint with James Feigenbaum, Casper Worm Hansen, and Hui Ren Tan). Media: [Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (in German)]

"Froebel's Gifts: How the Kindergarten Movement Changed the American Family", [CEPR dp] (joint with Francesco Cinnirella). Media: [VoxEU Video] [VoxTalks]

​​"Church Membership and Social Insurance: Evidence from the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927", (joint with Casper Worm Hansen and Lars Lønstrup)


"Bank Entry Regulation and Financial Development: The US Free Banking Experience", (joint with Fabrizio Spargoli) 


"The Persistence of de Facto Power: Elites and Economic Development in the US South, 1840-1960"


Work in Progress


"The Making of an American: Public Kindergartens and the Assimilation of Immigrant Children", (joint with Francesco Cinnirella, Katherine Eriksson, Ezra Karger, and Viktor Malein)

“Gender-biased Technological Change and Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Diffusion of Milking Machines in Norway” (joint with Marc Goni and Kjell G. Salvanes)

Other Publications


"The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecast: A further application and extension of the pooled approach", (joint with Marcus Kappler and Steffen Osterloh). International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, vol. 25 (1), pp. 167-181